89 Editorial Dear Readers, rarely have prospects for the future been as unclear as they are today. Employees in the strategy and planning departments of the German automotive and supplier industry are by no means envious of their tasks. Conditions that have been fixed for years have changed fundamentally overnight, making precise, year-by-year forecasts and planning almost impossible. The war in Ukraine, for example, seems to be dragging on longer than political observers had originally assumed. At present, there is no realistic scenario for a ceasefire or even a lasting political stabilization of Eastern Europe. This makes statements on market developments impossible and any determination from today's perspective would be frivolous. With regard to the Ukraine conflict, a new geostrategic problem has arisen with the discussion between China and the United States on the status of Taiwan under international law, which could have serious effects on the supply of parts for the global automotive industry with electronic components. According to reports in the Handelsblatt, Taiwan's share of international chip production is currently 77 percent. Just imagine a scenario in which the Chinese leadership called for a purchase boycott of European and U.S. cars. The consequences of such a development would be devastating. The German automotive industry currently generates around 40 percent of its sales in China. While the loss of the low-volume Russian market was still bearable, the loss of China would be a disaster. How the Chinese market is to be developed in the future from the perspective of the German automotive industry is like squaring the circle anyway. On the one hand, efforts are being made - drawing lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict - to reduce dependencies. On the other hand, the Chinese market is essential for the German automotive industry as a growth market. In the shadow of the political dispute, German OEMs and suppliers are moving with remarkable skill, in particular through the targeted conclusion of production and development partnerships with Chinese companies. The consequences of the energy crisis are also currently unpredictable and therefore impossible to plan for. Exorbitant price and cost increases for gas, electricity and mineral oil will not remain without impact on purchasing behavior. For example, almost 13 percent fewer new passenger cars were registered in July 2022 than in the same month of the previous year. Electricity price developments in particular will not remain without consequences for sales of battery-electric vehicles. Further declines could also result from the reduction in government subsidies at the end of 2022. Market mechanisms will then once again decide which type of drive will prevail in the long term. The price pressure on suppliers of e-vehicles is already becoming noticeable. All market participants are very concerned about the threat of recession and increased inflation. Here it is to be hoped that energetic countermeasures by the ECB and the German government will not remain without positive consequences and that planned relief measures will help to calm the markets. Positive signals are coming from a largely stable labor market. It is not only demographic trends and the universally lamented shortage of skilled workers that are causing companies to endeavor to retain their employees and also provide replacements by recruiting new staff. Behind this is a well-founded confidence in a positive future development, which has its roots not least in the quality of the products, the innovative strength of the companies and the high qualifications of the employees. This confidence is supported by the latest empirical economic findings, according to which cyclical economic crises are much shorter in duration than the subsequent recovery and prosperity phases. This phenomenon was already evident in the financial crisis of 2009/2010, which was followed by a growth phase lasting almost ten years. The articles in this issue of OEM&Lieferant are also evidence of this confidence and strength of our industry and its service providers. Our thanks go to all authors, interview partners and advertising customers for their excellent cooperation. Your editors Elisabeth Klock and Dr. Rudolf Müller OEM&Supplier by VEK Publisher www.oemundlieferant.de Dr. Rudolf Müller Elisabeth Klock
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