95 Editorial Dear readers, No question – we are not through yet. Even if the economic conditions for the automotive industry are brightening slightly, it cannot be assumed that the risks have been overcome and the traffic light is “green” again. The Ukraine conflict continues to dominate the headlines and a peaceful end cannot be predicted. The mild winter so far has kept the effects of the energy shortage in check and the worst fears have not materialised thanks to politically controversial but ultimately determined countermeasures by the government. Companies were also able to significantly improve their energy efficiency in the short term at considerable expense and have introduced unrestricted measures based on renewable energy concepts for the future. However, we are moving – and this does not only apply to private households – to the limits of the burden, which, not least, is increasingly casting doubt on Germany's locational quality with regard to necessary future investments for products and plants. The US Inflation Reduction Act with its subsidy measures worth billions clearly shows that competition between locations has opened up. The still high inflation rate has a dampening effect on customers' willingness to buy, especially since it also makes products more expensive. One should not be deceived by the good to very good annual results of the German OEMs, which were not to be expected on this scale. The good results are not least due to a special situation in which, due to the parts shortage caused by the pandemic, supply was shortened despite high demand and reduced to high-priced products. As a result, margins increased at stable prices despite declining sales – a situation that will not be repeated in this way. According to general forecasts by associations and institutes, more cars will be sold globally in 2023 than in the previous year for the first time since the Corona pandemic. This is initially good news, but it is put into perspective when looking at the German market. The industry association VDA expects 2.3 million new registrations for the current year. That would be around two percent more than in the previous year, but still a quarter less than in the pre-crisis year 2019 – a rather mixed than exhilarating outlook. The market for electric vehicles will be watched with particular interest. In 2022, the share of e-vehicles increased by around half a million and the share in new registrations was 18 percent. Experts doubt whether this development will continue in view of reduced subsidies and increased electricity prices. The VDA expects sales of e-cars to fall by eight per cent and new registrations to deteriorate by three percent compared to 2022. Both the US market, with four percent, and the Chinese market, with three percent, will grow more strongly than the German market in 2023. It is noteworthy that the Chinese market is increasingly developing into a pure e-vehicle market. Almost half of all new registrations in 2022 were battery-electric or hybrid. 60 percent of all electric cars worldwide were sold in China. Unfortunately, the market share of German OEMs in China fell for the first time, and at the same time Chinese manufacturers are successfully entering our domestic markets. Here it is necessary to regain lost ground by adapting products to changed buyer expectations. Corresponding investments have already been announced by BMW and Mercedes-Benz. The planned investments prove that the German automotive industry is facing the challenges with power. Between 2022 and 2026, companies in the German automotive industry will invest 220 billion euros in research and development, especially in electromobility, battery technology and digitalisation, and around 100 billion in the conversion of production facilities. Last but not least, the articles in this issue of OEM&Lieferant bear witness to the determination of the German automotive and supplier industry and its service providers to continue to maintain their leading position with their products and services on the world markets. Our thanks go to all authors, interview partners and advertising customers for their outstanding cooperation. Your editors Elisabeth Klock & Dr. Rudolf Müller OEM&Lieferant www.oemundlieferant.de VEK Onlineservice www.vek-onlineservice.de Dr. Rudolf Müller Elisabeth Klock
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