6 Transformation and Employment By Armin Gehl, Managing Director autoregion e. V., Saarbrücken The impact of the transformation process in the automotive industry on employment in the medium and long term is highly controversial, even among experts. In particular, the switch to e-mobility and the associated loss of importance of the combustion engine and the entire drive train will not remain without consequences for employment. Image: © autoregion e. V. As early as 2022, Jim Farley, CEO of Ford, announced that 40 percent fewer workers would be needed to build e-cars than to produce a vehicle with a classic combustion engine. At the time, the closure of the Ford production plant in Saarlouis, which has been announced and is expected in the near future, was laughed at or not taken seriously, but now we have arrived at the painful reality. Founded in 1970, 4.800 people were still employed here. Approximately 1700 employees work for suppliers in the immediate region. Ford will completely switch its manufacturing to electric models and concentrate production at other locations. Is this the model case for the entire industry and are we threatened with similar scenarios from our German manufacturers? The statements and plans are not yet clear or are based on different assumptions. According to cautious statements by its CEO Källenius, Mercedes-Benz expects to reduce its workforce by 2030 without, however, specifying where and how this reduction will reflect the transformation process. Volkswagen, on the other hand, does not see any profound risks in terms of job losses. Even their group works council chairperson Daniela Cavallo recently stated that "this profound change in the industry would not end in dramatic disruptions". But the perspective of individual OEMs does not seem to reflect the full scope of the coming problem. In a comprehensive study, for example, the industry association VDA comes to the unequivocal conclusion that the electrification of the new car fleet will lead to considerable job losses in the automotive industry as well as in upstream and downstream industries, with the automotive supply industry being hit particularly hard. Here it is particularly the companies that have their focus on metalworking production around the powertrain of the combustion engine. These components – primarily the engine and transmission – are no longer found in electrically powered vehicles and are substituted there by other components. And the production of these components – primarily the electric motor and battery cells – will by no means compensate for the reduction in employment caused by the elimination of the powertrain. This is partly because the electric motor has far fewer components and partly because the focus of value creation in battery cell production is in Asia. Even though our German manufacturers are investing heavily in the development and production of battery cells, it will be years before this has a noticeable impact on employment in Germany. For example, the BMW pilot plant for battery cell production in Pasdorf near Munich currently employs about 50 people. Plants under construction, such as those at Stelantis in Kaiserslautern, Tesla in Grünheide or the Chinese battery manufacturer CATL in Erfurt, will not start production until the middle of the decade. Especially against the background of demographic change, it must be the task of all those involved in the automotive value-added process – companies, politicians, associations and trade unions – to avoid job losses as far as possible and thus also to preserve the opportunity for future growth. Once the job cuts have been made, the highly qualified skilled workers will move to other sectors and they will no longer be available for the development of a comprehensive electromobile automotive value chain in Germany. The basis that is urgently needed for the development of an internationally leading competitive position will then be missing. Armin Gehl, Managing Director of the association autoregion e. V.
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